|Volume No. 1 Issue No. 66 - Monday February 14, 2005|
|Early Predictions Point to a Dominica Labour Party Victory at the Polls |
by The Dominican.net News Desk
Election campaigning have intensified in Dominica in anticipation of general elections constitutionally due by July 19, 2005. According to the Dominica Constitution, the Parliament is allowed to meet for five years after the holding of general elections.
Anytime during or at the end of the five year period, the Prime Minister can advice the president to dissolve Parliament. Within three months of the dissolution of Parliament new general elections must be held. The last general elections were held in January 2005, and Parliament’s five year term comes to end in April.
In view of the pending elections, the Dominican.net has undertaken to make a prediction on the outcome of the next elections. The results you are about to look at were based on a careful scrutiny of the past elections, an analysis of the voting patterns of the past, and the extent to which the political parties are able to reverse or overcome previous losses, the so-called “momentum” factor.
It must be stressed that no scientific poll was conducted to arrive at the predictions in this paper, but rather we relied on an exhaustive analysis of the existing data and on our knowledge of events on the ground. This is by no means the end of the predictions. These shall be revisited from time to time, as we collect better information, and get an opportunity to conduct some localized polling.
Our initial analysis points to a slim margin of victory for the ruling Dominica Labour Party (DLP). The Dominican.net is tracking 12 seats for the DLP, 8 for the UWP, and 1 for the DFP. Of course, this is subject to change as we get closer to the elections and we will be constantly reviewing our predictions. In our view the elections will come down to how the constituencies of Colihaut, Roseau Valley, Castle Bruce and Salybia votes. A big unknown is also the participation of the independent candidates.
We shall attempt to give you an insight into how we arrived by our predictions. Firstly, we looked at the “safe seats” for each party, then considered those with a “good chance of winning”, and those with an “average chance” of going for that party.
Six “safe seats” are considered for the DLP - Grand Bay, Cottage, Paix Bouche, Petite Savanne, Portsmouth, and Vielle Case. The DLP is considered to have an excellent chance to regain Roseau South, and St. Joseph. We also are predicting that the DLP will capture Morne Jaune and Soufriere for the very first time, hold on to Salybia, and pick up Roseau Valley. There is also a small chance of gaining Castle Bruce.
The five “safe seats” for the UWP are considered to be La Plaine, Marigot, Roseau North, Wesley, and Salisbury. We predict that the party will capture Roseau Central for the first time, and hold on to Mahaut. They also have a reasonable chance in capturing Soufriere and holding on to the Roseau Valley.
The DFP will most likely lose Roseau Central to the UWP, and may have difficulty hanging on to Soufriere. The party however has a good chance of picking up Colihaut.
In summary, the DLP is expected to hold on to their 10 seats and add Morne Jaune, and possibly Roseau Valley and/or Soufriere. The UWP is expected to lose Morne Jaune from their previous nine, but add on Roseau Central and/or Soufriere. Our predictions therefore gives the DLP a maximum possible 13 seats, the UWP a maximum possible 11 seats, and the DFP a maximum of one seat.
The entire elections may be decided on what happens in Colihaut, Castlebruce, Soufriere and Roseau Valley. Again we stress that these are mere predictions and that we will keep reviewing and possibly changing these outcomes over the coming weeks.
Editor's Note: We encourage our readers to send comments, observations, corrections, etc. on the Dominica elections so that the readers could all share. Click on the MESSAGE BOARD, register, and post your comments.
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