The Dominica opposition and a coalition of the willing

Is it because he is responsible for Skerrit still ‘occupying’ the PM's office after he (Skerrit) has been in all sorts of legal troubles? Or is it a class thing where he feels he can do and say whatever he wants because he belongs the affluent merchant class compared to Skerrit who hails (like this writer) from the Dominican hills? Would this lawyer dude act in this manner in a Douglas or Dame Charles Administration?

In any event, when general elections are called, the realistic formula for an opposition victory is via a coalition of the willing. Media reports indicate that the UWP can currently only contest 12 seats out of the 21. If that is the case, it is causing heartburn for the legions of well wishes that are working in their own ways to change the current dynamics in Dominica and get a new sense of order.

It is a tall order for opposition parties to win elections and much easier for incumbents to lose. Given Dominica’s issues of an unclean voter list, voter IDs and absence of much needed electoral reforms, this government will do anything and everything necessary to hold on to power.

As I follow the ugly political theatre and court drama I am sadden by the political quagmire that my island is in. But the main issue is whether the opposition can competitively contest a snap election. As pressure mounts on Skerrit, his ministers, handlers and agents, they will employ an aggressive personal campaign to demonize and intimidate anyone who speaks out. ‘Undignified, incompetent and belligerent

Ministers will continue using their favorite nouns and adjectives (Rubbish, Toilet, Ignorant and Stupid) to refer and describe patriotic citizens who support Dominica but not Skerrit. Skerrit’s ‘macacquie, and commess’ (non-sense and juvenile governing style is not an issue for these so called 'Honorables'. In addition, the Modus Operandi for Skerrrit and his crew continues to be: He who has the gold makes the rules.

Given the red clinic, political patronage, credible allegations of corruption, nepotism and other questionable tactics, it must be acknowledged that Skerrit’s political machinery is well oiled and is working effectively for him but not for our island home.

So how can the opposition defeat this well entrenched machinery? By forming an all hands on deck grass root coalition of the willing and organizing the disaffected youth and others in a systemic way. I would borrow a page from the 80’s very successful Young Freedom Movement (YFM) which Skerrit came from.

If this occurs, then the opposition’s can be in striking distanced of capturing the PMs Office at the next election. The government is vulnerable due to high unemployment, the economy which has come to a grinding halt and folks are restless. A short analysis of the last elections indicated that the DLP won by some 6,000 votes.

The bulk of the votes came from about six (6) constituencies. This margin included Skerrit’s constituency of Vielle case (Itassi) in the foothills of Morne Aux Diables in the north east, the Labour strong holds of the late PMs Douglas (Portsmouth in the north) and Pierre Charles (Grand Bay in the south). The other DLP land slide victories were in Cottage, Paix Bouche (next to Itassi) and Ti (Petite) Savanne which neighbours Grand Bay.

This means that the other 15 seats can be taken by a well organized coalition of the willing. The coalition can easily recapture the agricultural constituency of Castle Bruce and the Au Vent seats of La Plaine and Grand Fond in the south east.

The three coastal constituencies which hug the Caribbean Sea can be taken with a bit of hard work, focus and organization. At least two of the four Roseau seats (North, South, Central and Valley) and Wesley in the northern parish of St. Andrew should fall to the coalition.

I would not bet on the Carib Territory but to win Pt. Michel/Soufriere, the Diaspora wing of the coalition will have to counter Skerrit’s ‘vep’ for vote’ scheme - the massive free airlift excursion of overseas Dominicans during the last elections.

Looking back at the last five election cycles, informal and formal coalitions were the variables which won the elections. PM Patrick John’s Labour party's demise started off with the Dame Charles DFP Opposition forming a coalition with the powerful Civil Service Trade Union and its firebrand boss Mr. Savarin.

UWP’s path to power was because of the crossing over of Laborites who became restless in the wilderness (and needed a home) and by the grass roots famers’ coalition.

Mr. Roosevelt (Rosie) Douglas (not Roosevelt Skerrit) captured the PM’s office because of the DFP and DLP (Free-Lab) coalition against the UWP government. Rosie consolidated his power when Ms. Bannis, the lady from my dad’s village of Castle Bruce, defected from UWP to Labour. Skerrit legitimised his power by making Savarin; the former Union leader who led a strike against Mr. John's Labour government for 47 days, then became DFP’s leader, a Minister in this Labour government.

Either Savarin is an expert at coalition building or he has the luck of a cat with nine political lives. To add to this entertaining and confusing non-fiction coalition narrative, the former deputy leader of the UWP, Mr. Timothy, is now the Minister of Health in this Labour Administration.

So what are the chances that the United workers Party and the Dominica Freedom Party will form a coalition and take back Dominica? When and if they do, they might have to adopt a new name such as: ‘Dominica United Party’.

They may also choose to select a highly qualified, grassroots and vibrant leader who is a consensus builder. That leader must have in his/her DNA the ability to work, collaborate with and respect all Dominicans whether they wear red, blue, green and white political colours. In this coalition paradigm, the diaspora and international equation must be factored in.